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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
As for Bernie Sanders, I've developed a bearish reputation on him. He could definitely win. And his ability to organize online would definitely play a big role in that win... But he probably won't win, unless he can expand. (https://t.co/ptX7KmRRAW) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
One little note on Trump: I remember GOP aides for other candidates infuriated with this coverage after 2016 all played out. They certainly thought it played a big role. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The story hits on Donald Trump's fandom... True he certainly has his fans... but I really believe the old media helped... He received a TON of free old media (https://t.co/PTaxXQnsxG). You couldn't turn on tv in 2015 without season a rally. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
What the chart I think pretty clearly indicates, Buttigieg's breakout moment was a televised townhall. It was only after this appearance on old media did search interest actually go up for him online. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
So I suggest you read this https://t.co/lNj5ihHqzy. It's an interesting theory and may be right. But let me give you a few reasons I am not sure. I write online, do podcasts, do tv, etc... Let's start with Buttigieg... I'm gonna post this Google trend chart. https://t.co/kndh9vGdJP — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@kyletblaine @merica @GregJKrieg Awwwwwwwwwwwwwww. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@KSoltisAnderson WALLY!!!!!!!! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Now, stuff like this is just shorthand. Different types of folks call themselves liberal, for example. But the love affair I see on here sometimes for Buttigieg/Warren feels similar in some way to me... which these numbers confirm. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
3. Buttigieg/Warren both get the lion share of their support from white voters and little from nonwhite voters... (For those wondering, there isn't a clear gender gap in this poll. Warren actually does insignificantly better with male voters in this poll.) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I bring up the poll cause I think it matches a few interesting trends revolving around Buttigieg/Warren. 1. They consistently do better among "liberal" than moderate/conservative Dems. 2. They both do better with college/wealthier voters than non-college/less wealthy voters. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Unsure how much I like the open ballot test (I guess it does confirm that we have a long way to go), but among Dem voters (unsure why WaPo defaults to Dem adults. Voters are name of game): Biden 19%, Sanders 10%, Buttigieg 6%, Harris 5%, Warren/O'Rourke 4% https://t.co/FA9AOa8Zc6 https://t.co/5LkZar1vUp — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The case for and against Joe Biden's chances in podcast form https://t.co/KnA0L4hbrH Please have yourself a lovely day :). — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@GregJKrieg 9 months and a few days. Don't cheat us of our time together. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Chicago and Milwaukee have winter storm watches. I really gotta move there. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@jbouie That kid ate more broccoli in that photo than I have in at least 20 years. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is holding up fairly well at this point. https://t.co/tLQ7GAWUuJ — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@jbview Disagree on this just from a modeling perspective. The only candidate who is as well known as him trails on these metrics save maybe fundraising. I'm not saying he is an odds-on-favorite, which I know you know. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel Odds are against it. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden leads in endorsements, money raised on day 1, and in the polls. I mean that's a frontrunner. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@SteveKornacki People forget... Black voters were the reason Southern Democrats voted to confirm. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Well these are headlines that certainly emphasize different parts of the equation... https://t.co/qn8hY9OEKo — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 And where is Moulton? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The economy has been very healthy by the numbers... and Trump's approval ratings are steady. Sure, it's possible his ratings go up, but I'm not sure why that would be the bet given what's occurred so far. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Well got plenty wrong on the 2016 GOP primary... (Well actually really one big thing...) but just found this... Note the date of the article and the picture... https://t.co/XTgmPe7NO0 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
What's this about the New Jersey Giants picking a bad QB? Sry folks, I root for the only team in New York... The Buffalo Bills. We may stink at times, but at least we didn't flee the state. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel I mean Marino got drafted what? 27th? A lot of teams let him pass. (Buffalo would have drafted him at like 14 had Kelly not been an option...) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
When Biden first declared for president, I was not alive. When he declared the second time, I was still in high school. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
You'd think a former 2 term veep and 200 term (slight exaggeration) senator would be able to gobble up endorsements. What you can say is Biden's endorsements have been diverse, though more towards the center of the party. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Earlier this week, I set the over/under on Biden endorsement points on 538's tracker at the end of his first week on the trail at 100... He's at 75 right now. If he has more endorsements coming, he'll easily break it. If the well was dried today, he's well short. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Only ~20% of Democrats call themselves very liberal (and Justice Dems are on the left part of that group). ~50% of Democrats call themselves moderate/conservative. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's probably worth noting that while this group, Justice Democrats, calls Biden "out-of-touch" with the "center of… https://t.co/5w8DsumzfX
