(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Ideology: Biden and Sanders are about even among "very liberals", but they are a minority. Biden gains as you go to somewhat liberal and then moderate/conservatives. He's up by more than 30 pts among moderates/conservatives. https://t.co/bynQ0O2Lvx — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Age: Among those under 50, Biden's up by just 11 points. Among those age 50+, he's got a 37 point(!) advantage. A slight majority of Dems are 50+. https://t.co/bynQ0O2Lvx — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Final point: I wrote a few weeks ago how "The Democratic electorate is older, more moderate and less educated than you think". That's on full display in this poll. What I call the hidden Democratic Party is powering Biden's big advantage. https://t.co/bynQ0O2Lvx — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Biden voters are actually 17 points MORE likely to say they know about his record than those who are choosing other candidates. That is, there's not much of a sign right now that people will change their mind on him once they learn more. https://t.co/Z5ye8fAnLc — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

There are a lot of Democrats who want to go after Biden's record. I've been skeptical of that line of attack for a number of reasons... Now our poll does find that about 50% say they don't know a lot about Biden's Senate record, but there's a catch... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Elizabeth Warren didn't catch fire in our poll. Just at 8%. But you know what she isn't falling either. She's consistently stayed in the top 5 candidates. Maybe, eventually she'll have a breakout moment for voters. Everyone loves a comeback story. https://t.co/nI7lLv9kYk — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Also, let's congratulate Eric Swalwell for qualifying for the June debates. Our poll was the third with him hitting 1%! It's also the first to give Marianne Williamson 1%. She's now 2 polls away from hitting the polling threshold. https://t.co/fKvhLQb9Yv — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

On issues, one thing that we found (similar to Monmouth) is more Democratic voters are saying climate change is top issue than ever before. An amazing 96% said it was at least very impt. IDK if it does anything for Islee, but still. https://t.co/wfZLGq11N3 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Back to the primary and the gender gap, as our great polling director @jennagiesta points out to me, women are more satisfied (85%) than men (74%) with the Dem field. Suggests, perhaps, that women are happy many women are running even if they aren't choosing them right now. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

More on general, Biden's net favs have dropped w/ all voters to +10 pts. That's down 17 pts from Dec 2018. Not a big shocker as he reenters politics. He's still most liked Dem by far. BUT(!) if he falls further, will his electability argument hold w/ Dems? https://t.co/OCyPz6ZwOF — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Turning to the general election for a moment, record turnout seems likely. More voters say they are enthusiastic about voting in 2020 than in any poll ever done in any cycle by CNN since 2003. This comes on the heels of record turnout in 2018. https://t.co/xIq9qid0MW — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

O'Rourke and Harris have come very much down to Earth. They dropped over 5 points from our last poll. This matches other data suggesting whatever momentum they have has gone the way of the Dodo for now. https://t.co/nToXTOWxuu — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This poll is a warning sign for Buttigieg. Yes, he's up from our last poll, but he's actually slightly lower from Monmouth earlier this month. He's getting basically no support from moderates, those making less than 50k or nonwhites. https://t.co/0XSilpjOTl — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This one I think really points out the bubble that is Twitter. I keep hearing that Biden voters aren't enthusiastic. Well our poll found that his voters were actually just as enthusiastic as everyone else's. That is really revved up to vote in 2020. https://t.co/bRYBjskzrF — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

One of the reasons women did so well last year in Dem primaries is that women voted for women candidates. (Clinton too benefitted from a gender gap in 2016.) In our poll, there is no gender gap, however. Women back Biden for now. https://t.co/DlMRztpEOV — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

First, we have a clear racial divide within the Dem electorate. Biden's doing 21 points among better w/ nonwhite Democrats than white Democrats in our poll. Prior polls showed Biden doing very well w/ black voters, a power center in the party. https://t.co/dCupk2KAA8 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I've been typing up a storm in regards to our latest poll on the Dem primary, which has Biden at 39% and Sanders at 15%. Here are some of those posts... https://t.co/tDax8ubaYv — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Seems like the right time to share... "A first look at the 2020 Senate map: Republicans have a good shot at maintaining control" https://t.co/5oKua1BE2y — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@ElectProject The polling always had him ahead... Those pundits were ignoring the polling, haha. I do agree though polling can change :). — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Maybe, we're overthinking all of this. It really could be as simple as Biden is well known and liked... He was the veep to a beloved figure in the Dem Party... and Democratic voters are tired of waking up every morning to see Trump in the WH. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I'm listening to Christmas music. Thank you. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@RalstonReports @kasie Hi Jon. Just wanted to wish you a good day. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

And if you go back over time, you see in a limited sample size the overall approval ratings are far more telling of election results than the economic approval ratings. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

It suggests that his approval rating is getting dragged down by non-economic (or at least broad "unemployment is low, GDP is fine, etc.") factors. It also suggests voters understand the economic state. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I still think one of the most compelling things is that Trump's economic approval rating has consistently been above his overall approval rating. That is, very uncommon. (1/?) — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Was looking for previous open-ended caucus/primary questions... Came across this random (and anonymous) comment in the NYT comment section from 12 years ago... https://t.co/eh1PSwwDbI https://t.co/VWxxuoHrgC — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I tend to think the way we consume politics is in a lot flux... IDK the answers. I'm keeping my eye on a slew of factors (polls, money, endorsements, and yes media). We'll see how it plays out. 9 months is an eternity. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

But my own (perhaps faulty) belief is that the online fandom theory may breakdown when you're getting large age gaps such as this https://t.co/z9K2R8dXtg... Of course, most Dem voters are GenX or older. They're also most likely not to advocate online. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

And with that in mind, Biden, who beyond the memes, doesn't have the same online following as some other Democrats. He does however have a consistent polling advantage. Will that hold? IDK. History suggests it most likely won't, but still has a shot of doing so. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Now the piece mentions polling and how Trump has led in almost all the polling from July 2015 onward. That is, very true. And folks like me waited waaaaaaay too long to acknowledge that fact 4 years ago. Not a mistake I'll make again.... — PolitiTweet.org