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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 https://t.co/63FhFtzJJ1 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@SteveKornacki AGREED. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
It's just such an AWFUL comparison based on the numbers. The ultimate outcome may be the same... but Bush was polling like meh. Biden's actually polling well. Whether that holds? We'll see... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
More? Bush was clocking at best mid-30 net favs with the GOP. Monmouth had him at +20. CNN just clocked Biden at +69... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Will Biden win the nomination? IDK anyone who thinks that is more likely than not (i.e. he's a frontrunner, but field beats him). But Jeb Bush's best 2 live interview polls after announcing had him at 22% & 17%. Biden's best 2? 39% & 38% so far. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
KFC is disgusting. #popeyesonlyfeed — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
K. — PolitiTweet.org
#CTM @CBSThisMorning
JUST IN: Democratic Senator @MichaelBennet of Colorado announces he’s running for president. https://t.co/nH0sIQt2xI
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
News in the polling inbox about @RoperCenter... Whole new world. Non-probability samples will now be collected. https://t.co/Z9KM0I0kL3 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is like that show Early Edition. People in 87 got the newspaper 32 years early! — PolitiTweet.org
andrew kaczynski @KFILE
reading a 1986 article about how Biden wanted to be the Boomer candidate. https://t.co/Ayt9AyJofF
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 Bill or Don? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 Besides poll vote share now and actual vote share when voting occurs are clearly correlated... It's not perfect or close to it... but it is significant... (A lot has to do with when the runner-up gets out of the race.) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
BTW, race may be contributing here, but it's not driving it. Q-Pac had a large ideology gap but not much of a diff between whites/nonwhites. Also I ran this regression on our poll. Ideology is telling independent of race. https://t.co/fnSenmgtpj https://t.co/VPXTyQfigl — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@mattmfm I have emailed you my friend :). — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Trump has done absolutely nothing on Twitter to dissuade Democratic voters from believing Biden is the most electable. (I am far less sold on the electability notion for Biden, fwiw.) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@DemFromCT HA! I think the closest to that is the somewhat liberal... though none of this stuff is perfect on that... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I think this graphic is telling for now... We tend to group liberals in together... but "somewhat liberal" Democrats' preferences right now look a LOT more like moderate/conservative Democrats than "very liberal" Democrats. https://t.co/XqT8fvCX1w — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Sanders should worry less about catching Biden right now and more on falling behind Warren (which he already did in one national poll today). — PolitiTweet.org
Jonathan Martin @jmartNYT
NEW: Bernie, eager to consolidate the left, wants voters to focus on Biden’s record Biden, eager to consolidate th… https://t.co/lsSmhPsGCQ
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Multiple tweets from folks hearing what sounds like an Iowa poll paid for by Bill de Blasio or friends of his... Should point out his favorable ratings have been not very good among Dems... — PolitiTweet.org
John Deeth @johndeeth
We may not yet be done with candidate announcements: Just sat through a nearly half hour survey call that was very… https://t.co/Go15bFmTxW
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@PollsAndVotes @MULawPoll NICE STUDY! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
If you wanna argue that the polls will change, that's perfectly fine. But we've had a slew of polls today clearly indicating Biden running away from everyone else right now. They're not all wrong. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Weighting up harder to reach parts of the population is polling 101. The CNN poll for example matches very closely with the age breakdown of who the Democratic Party is. (https://t.co/71GWYwdqdg) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Also Quinnipiac (https://t.co/fnSenmgtpj) had very similar findings to the CNN poll. There is to put it mildly a very large age gap, which has been the case for over two months now https://t.co/9jTsRHjOfb — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Man this is so very bad. I actually reported on how 18-49 years and 50+ year-olds differed in vote choice earlier today. (1/?) (https://t.co/bynQ0O2Lvx) — PolitiTweet.org
Lee J. Carter @carterforva
Love to exclude literally all respondents aged 18-49 in my presidential polling @CNN https://t.co/scM4ppvYRu
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Who is Phil Gramm? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Fundraising in the primary has a long track record of *not* being a reliable indicator. Polls, especially in early… https://t.co/zUOfBr2kwj
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I'd take this kid to work. https://t.co/0C9bYP1Fbe — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@POLITICO_Steve Heavens! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Look we're 9 months out. Things can definitely change... but if I were running, I'd like to be the guy near 40% and 25 points ahead of the nearest competitor. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is about the Mets, right? — PolitiTweet.org
Jim Sciutto @jimsciutto
Hardcovers arrived today - and what better place to have a look than on an Amtrak where I wrote so much of it.… https://t.co/XQj0LvyZvd
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RT @JoshuaGreen: @ForecasterEnten Also, Biden-friendly senior voters turned out like *crazy* in the midterms: https://t.co/65RyuThdDc — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Education: Biden's up only 11 points among Dems w/ a coll degree. (He's even weaker than that w/ postgrads.) He's up by 31 among those w/o a college degree. (He's even stronger among those who never attended college). Non-college Dems are the majority. https://t.co/bynQ0O2Lvx — PolitiTweet.org
