(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@FiveThirtyEight This show had soccer. Bad. Baseball good. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@NateSilver538 A grand total of zero respondents said it was the most important issue to their 2020 vote when CNN asked two months ago. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I'll note one other thing: whites with and without a college degree make up about the same share of the Democratic Party voter base. (In the general, those without a degree make up a larger share...) — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Indeed, what we've seen so far with other candidates like Buttigieg, Harris and even Warren to a degree is an ability to appeal to those higher up on the socioeconomic ladder. They've mostly struggled with those lower on it. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I'll also note something else: I've seen some folks say Biden 2020 reminds them of Clinton 2016. The coalitions are similar in some ways (age/race playing key roles), but Clinton did considerably better when you went up the socioeconomic ladder. Biden is the opposite. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This would help to partially explain why Sanders suffered when Biden entered. Yes, some of that was fresh face and voters jumping to the new guy. But for all talk of ideological differences, Biden/Sanders are both appealing to whites without a college degree. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

"How Joe Biden is eating into Bernie Sanders' coalition"... Sanders won whites without a college degree (working class whites) in 2016, while losing whites with a college degree. Not now. Biden seems to have flipped the script from 2016 in a key way. https://t.co/WRA3HjCcGj https://t.co/VSq8wlK4Dq — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@KSoltisAnderson TELL WALLY I SAY HI!!!! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Read article. Misses key polling point. Could say something. Won't say anything cause I prefer to drink Goya nectar. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@jbarro YES!!!!!!! I usually stop off on the grocery store on a limb. It's not planned. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

RT @geoffreyvs: There are now 20+ candidates seeking the Democratic presidential nomination, but not all of them will make it to Iowa. I lo… — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@daveweigel 2003 seems so very long ago... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I'm an elections person... I care about how Trump is doing among voters. The average poll looks the same as it has. About 43% approval, 53% disapproval. https://t.co/InRMzIOyRv https://t.co/JgGO1WwYHD — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I'll have more on this, but while Biden and Sanders have different coalitions in a number of respects... They share something in common: appeal to non-college whites. This is markedly different from Clinton in 2016 who struggled with this group. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Correct https://t.co/SyrtCGxZN9. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@PatrickRuffini 08 GOP primary I'd think. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@PatrickRuffini Everything weaves for sure... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@PatrickRuffini (It also has to do with the fact that both are pulling from non-college voters... That is perhaps correlated with low info voters... though the CNN poll found Biden actually did significantly better among those who said they would not change their mind later.) — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I see we now pick out individual polls to prove a point. Oh wait, we always did that. Carry on. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@EsotericCD Is it common sense? :) — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

From 5 months ago... May end up being wrong, but hasn't been yet... https://t.co/uvOzPsXOgL https://t.co/e0JG4FLp00 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Like Klobuchar winning by 24 in Minnesota is a much bigger deal than Warren winning by 24 in Massachusetts... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Nerdy tweet: If we're judging electability via past elections, we should be using margins and controlling for average Dem performance. Telling us someone hasn't lost (or lost x number of times) means little... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Things can def change in a hurry in SC, but in near 60 SC Dem primary polls for 2008 Clinton never hit 48%. And her largest lead was 25 pts in any one survey. So while yes this is a conservative affiliated pollster https://t.co/JqAMIVGIYS, it's pretty impressive for Biden. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@mattyglesias Yes. Agreed. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Like this plz https://t.co/AtBOeMLqOA — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

If you were to take an average of polls since the beginning of the year, you'd get something like... Biden 30%, Sanders 18%, Harris 9%, O'Rourke 7%, Warren 6%, Booker 4%, Buttigieg 3%. Last week: Biden 38%, Sanders 16%, Warren 9%, Buttigieg 7%, Harris 7%, O'Rourke 5%, Booker 3%. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Fun little crosstab from 2016 in OK, which has a closed primary. https://t.co/N1ise1OPYI https://t.co/EcLynjFcvi — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@kyletblaine How do you think I make great playlists every year? — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Good luck? They already believe it. https://t.co/jv7uVnAOIj https://t.co/ggsBDAA5bg https://t.co/U6ZLjGsxJH — PolitiTweet.org