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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel I still am in Camp Hydrox. (That is if i ever ate cookies.) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
CNN Audio’s fall pod slate was presented @ IAB Podcast Upfronts this week, including my soon-to-be-launched podcast Margins of Error! Listen to the premiere on 9/21. I’ll be looking @ data behind some interesting topics, like phone phobia & ghost belief https://t.co/0GENrdrOaU — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel It's on my list! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I find myself agreeing with Ryan a lot these days... The "no" on recall's lead has grown tremendously. The number of times a polling average is off 7 points is a number. Them being off 14 points? Not very many. https://t.co/NtNJRICRRd — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Absolutely a fan of this! @aedwardslevy @jennagiesta https://t.co/kTVwD9XwdI — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I'd be interested in what others think, but we've had some testing of vaccine penalties/mandates from Delta AND United Airlines. Both seem to be working fairly well. Certainly better than pretty much anything I've seen. https://t.co/K4SWuxpRxf https://t.co/GGqlQdZa4e — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This most likely ain't gonna work for the GOP. https://t.co/qm0xISYDd8 — PolitiTweet.org
Ryan Matsumoto @ryanmatsumoto1
Here's the California returned ballots breakdown by party registration compared to five days before Election Day 20… https://t.co/sNFd4jIAa6
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Check out @DanaBashCNN’s new podcast, Total Recall: California’s Political Circus! It’s all about the events that led to the 2003 recall, and examines what that moment in history forecast about politics today. Listen: https://t.co/6GpBCJzrsA https://t.co/1IkmIDjzME — PolitiTweet.org
Dana Bash @DanaBashCNN
2021… 2003… wondering why recall elections exist in California? Episode 1 of my new podcast - Total Recall: Califor… https://t.co/6GuJKNV4uu
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Trump is clearly "running" right now for 2024. Whether he ultimately formally declares is another question... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@ForecasterEnten Obviously, i'm comparing number of Biden approval polls to polls about Trump. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The number of polls about Biden's approval rating is down by a third compared to an equivalent point in 2017. Same is true with number of generic ballot polls. Number of polls from pollsters who have previously been most accurate down even more. https://t.co/ZSVohbUJNw — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The Yhonkays should fold. I don't say that as a Yhonkay hater. I say that as a fan of humanity. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@ForecasterEnten Not surprisingly, @aedwardslevy was on this beat for a while! (Love this thread) https://t.co/ssLfiaC8Sd — PolitiTweet.org
Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy
In a diverse, often culturally fractured society, it’s not that easy to get 70% of Americans to hear about, agree w… https://t.co/Bb0vz3BDpA
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Covid-19 vaccines are now as popular as Christmas trees... 75% of adults have gotten at least one shot... The same % of adults who have a Christmas Tree in December. (Also close to the 81% of Americans who thought Mother Teresa was a hero in 1997.) https://t.co/AycuFBpfTM — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel @nathanlgonzales @ryanmatsumoto1 Tis true on all counts, but I make it a rule (that I occasionally break if I have good reason) to not try and guess the direction of the polling miss. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Phil_Mattingly Well I do get it on the group dinner and then he "complains" that I order too much. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Phil_Mattingly I will admit that i am weak... but i have been eating more protein. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@ForecasterEnten One other thing... The early vote data for Dems is clearly worse than it was at this point in the 2020 cycle. It points to a potential turnout advantage for the GOP, which most polling shows too. Still, probably not enough given blueness of CA. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The chance of Newsom getting recalled is clearly fading. He's up by ~10 points now in the polls with an approval rating above 50%. One thing I'll note: the polls at this point in the 2003 CA recall were off by nearly 10 points. So not over yet. https://t.co/xSjfjomtqx — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@nymetrowx I'll take a good two months of this. Then we do snow. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I feel like you can believe two things. 1. The long arc of history strongly suggests the Dems will lose control of the House next year. 2. These are weird times, and I don't have any real idea where Biden's approval rating will exactly be in six months let alone 14. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
My Mom has been a pediatrician now for 40 years. Had her own practice for nearly as long. She wears a KN95/N95 when seeing patients and has been fully vax'd since January. https://t.co/PuYJV2KqVs — PolitiTweet.org
Andrew Ross Sorkin @andrewrsorkin
Just brought my child to an urgent care center because she had a fever and I wanted to get her checked out. The doc… https://t.co/z1w0Ayk1f4
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Some might say it's wrong to drink a 2 liter diet A&W root beer in bed. I say there has rarely been a thing that felt so right. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Been a bunch of special interest groups/internal polls in the Ohio GOP Senate primary... Plenty of undecideds in them, but they all have a common leader so far... Josh Mandel. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The stat i look back to about 2020 is that averaging across the exits, CES (i.e. CCES), Catalist and Pew voter verified data shows that Trump's margin shrunk by 7 points among white men compared to 2016. Among all other groups, he closed the gap by 0.5 points compared to 2016. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Per the Nowdata from the NWS, there has been nearly 29 inches of rain since July 1st in NYC, which is a record. The average is 9.4 inches. The story of last night is the story of the last two months. Lots of rain and continually breaking records. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
To put it mildly, this is unusual weather for NYC. It's from what I can tell in a quick look at the records the rainiest July 1 to Sept 1 in KNYC's recorded history. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Saying what some have said... The turn in the polling average in CA has been quite good for Newsom. I'll still note that a general rule is that a general election polling avg in single digits is still within the true margin of error based off past errors. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Vaccines are awesome. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NathanWurtzel Sometimes i just don't know anymore. — PolitiTweet.org
