(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@jbview @richardmskinner I'm talking purely statistically here... Based on where each is polling, endorsements etc. I'm making the assumption (perhaps incorrectly) that what you speak about comes through in these measurements. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@richardmskinner I think he is stronger than the latter... I think. He is probably weaker than the former. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

All of these are true... And you can write the story you wish to write... https://t.co/EchIPcJWQv — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@FiveThirtyEight Yes. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

But when we say Biden's the next [insert name], he probably is in some way... but in an important way he probably isn't at all... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

None of those advantages are WOWZER. They're not what I call minute... but they're not blowing anyone out. This is pretty much across the board true... Looking at the data, there's no case like it or all that close... (Not a huge surprise as modern primary era is young.) — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Heaven knows this will change in a week, but Biden is an odd duck. He basically leads in them all early indicators (national polling, early state polling, media attention, probably money raised this quarter, etc.). Few have done that & those who have almost always win... BUT!... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@NateSilver538 Old with a heavy black population. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Biden at 41% in the Dem FL primary and everyone else under the 15% threshold... (Sanders at 14%, Warren at 12%). Tons of time to go, but if Biden ain't stopped in IA/NH, this primary will be over fast. https://t.co/i7yTuYF1qG https://t.co/3GFWoaUbvi — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@jbview I can work on that too :). — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I really should start using $2 bills more... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@SeanTrende Why don't you two get married... Oh wait. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I think you could read this table in multiple ways... but I think the easiest is that Biden does lead in endorsements... but MOST of the party remains undecided... (Got data from @FiveThirtyEight) https://t.co/1cpHMuR30H — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

South Carolina is a pipe dream, but really no reason to think Biden couldn't win NC, FL, GA, or TX based on current polling... Of course, polls only measure what voters think today. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I also recall this in 2000, which was some fugly ugly stuff... https://t.co/fUbaR5cwex — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I recall standing next to Engel in 06 (on my way to vote) with Engel on the phone with Avi Weiss ensuring his voters were getting to the polls... Engel won that primary with 83% of the vote. https://t.co/AWIDac3k86 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@SeanTrende @JMilesColeman @Elitepercyjack Right. Clinton losing to White... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

This is right. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@NoahCRothman The most bizarre thing is Biden is far better shape than Romney... I mean I think people underestimate his shape. (This from someone who doesn't think he'll ultimately win the nomination.) — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Lots of talk about Biden's weaknesses... How about the fact that this YouGov poll has him up 13 points in NH... A state Sanders won by over 20 in 2016 & where more of the state is in the Boston media market. https://t.co/AtcMKf2nsV https://t.co/dJtehuD3a8 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@SeanTrende *in the polling era... I'm assuming :). — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@amyewalter There were some polls that had Clinton down to Dole by near this. Later, there were some that had Truman down to Dewey by this much... but for polls to consistently show what they're showing? No precedent. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Trump's internal polling stinks, which is what his public polling also shows. Polling two Junes before the election has not been predictive in last 5 cycles. But remember: Trump hasn't led Biden in 50+ polls dating back to 2017, & his net approval has been negative since Feb 2017 https://t.co/EFFu1Lq8Rn — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Josh is right here. Look there's plenty of time for things to change, but I'd rather be ahead than behind at this point. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@KSoltisAnderson Adam is awesome and fair. No bs and smart. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

RT @KSoltisAnderson: I’ve worked with both Mike Baselice and Adam Geller, and any campaign would be lucky to have them aboard. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@ComedyCellarUSA Tell Bob that he better be contemplating his Carvel order. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@LoganDobson Def agree on 1. I have no opinion on 2, though they fiddled with the draw rules to make this impossible. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Clinton definitely expanded her advantage overall and w/ black voters in the fall... but even before Iowa, Obama was gaining in SC and with black voters... Then IA occurred and the tide shifted his direction again... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I've seen over and over again folks says Clinton had black voters in 07 until Obama won IA. That's only partially true. Winning IA clinched the black vote for him... but there were a number of polls even as early as now where Obama was winning SC & black voters. — PolitiTweet.org