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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Feel like I could print this on a bumper sticker, as it is the same as it ever was... Biden's the frontrunner, but he's less than 50% chance to win the nomination. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
We see these in other polls as well... But some real splits on education and ideology in the Iowa poll... (Biden ahead overall 28% to 19% over Warren... Sanders well back at 11%) https://t.co/Vie923chpX https://t.co/KSw7pwnsTS — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Trying to figure out if I can get Pizza Hut delivered. Worst case: Dominos. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@DemFromCT @jbouie When I bought an electric and manual in NH a few years back, they threw in a cheap printer for free... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@PollsterPatrick @ewarren @MonmouthPoll Nicely done. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I've written my sure to be changed headline: "From a former disbeliever: Why Texas Could Go Blue in 2020." Comes tmrw. I know you're all looking forward... or not. IDK. Let's all just go get Wendy's. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Among registered voters in the 2018 CCES (pre-election)... Trump approval... AZ: 48%. FL: 49%. WI: 47%. TX: 48%. Overall: 46%... I was, 5 years ago, a HUGE TX pessimist for the Dems. But these numbers are real. This isn't adults. This is voters. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@galendruke I told u not to take TWA. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The point being is there are a lot going into whether you support Biden or someone else... It's not lanes really or not in the way you might think of them, anyway. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden support by education level among whites... 33% among those without a college degree... 19% among those with a college degree.... And fwiw, I ran a logit on all these... and yes each was clearly statistically significantly related to Biden's support. (3/4) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden support by race... White: 26%, Black: 44%, Hispanic: 25%, all others 24%. Biden support by age... Under 50: 21%... 50+: 38%.... Biden by ideology... Very liberal: 18%, somewhat liberal: 23%, Moderate/conservative: 37%. (2/3) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I made a combined sample of our April, May, and June polls. Given Biden's at about 30% (this combined sample has him there), it helps weed out the noise and gives us a good understanding of his support across different groups... 1/? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Taniel A lot better than 5 sixes! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
FWIW, this question has best correlated with Quinnipiac's polling so far... https://t.co/n0thzNhhEW — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
There's likely going to be an public high quality (i.e. not partisan and something that the media will plug) IA poll that will have Biden behind at some point. But to be convinced otherwise, I'd like to see some SC polling that doesn't have him up 20+... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden has been and is today a frontrunner who has a less than 50% chance of winning the nomination. That's been quite consistent for a while now. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is one reason I'm skeptical Sanders will fall much. His supporters are far more likely than Biden's or Warren's to say sharing views matters more than electability. That is, these are folks who are with Bernie for Bernie. (This is from Q-Pac. Saw it in our CNN polling too.) https://t.co/Ger3avgZXg — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Think it stupid or not, but Biden a. continuously does best on average against Trump. b. continuously has the best net fav among non-Democratic voters. This can obviously change... but voters are seeing this stuff too. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@aedwardslevy Uh. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@RalstonReports I will never meet a bigger champion for their home state than you. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The biggest diff between past flameouts & Biden right now isn't national polling... It's that an avg across early state polling looks like national polling. Giuliani was already down in both IA/NH, for example. (Note: Biden is stronger in SC than IA, but we're averaging across.) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Third diet A&W root beer of the day... I have issues. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Steyer may just buy himself a debate spot if this is seen in other early state polling... and he did hit 2% in a recent Monmouth SC poll. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Here's something new. https://t.co/3YINKJ5LRO https://t.co/RuQVcFHLMT
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Quite a racial gap on this gap, which mirrors the horserace numbers... (Note: Didn't include Hispanics/others category in here...) https://t.co/5A8BXTINJ0 https://t.co/WxCRqahq7v — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@LoganDobson FWIW, I left downtown Detroit 1 hr and 20 minutes before my noon flight... Made it with little problem. Landed at Newark at like 130... and was at my desk in NYC at 205... The joy I got from that was worth every penny. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
100% true. IMO, I think it's a really good thing for Warren. — PolitiTweet.org
Ariel Edwards-Levy @aedwardslevy
FWIW, while Harris' improvement in the horserace polls seemed to be pretty directly tied to her first debate perfor… https://t.co/F47W7SRRDc
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
That folks is a narrow range... https://t.co/Y4XJw7q0EG https://t.co/yLzL3AFzN4 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I see the link got messed up there. But Dems invest in TX seems like a very good idea. — PolitiTweet.org
Sean T at RCP @SeanTrende
People grossly oversold GOP vulnerability in TX pre-Trump and are grossly underselling it now. Texas is an overwhel… https://t.co/eQ8EXNCeog
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
100% agreement on this. IDK if Sean would go this far, but I would invest heavily... now. lehttps://mobile.twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/1158360753591726080?p=v — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
More... Black voters make up just 2% of all those who approve of Trump overall... Interestingly, black voters make up 18% of what I think is a pivotal bloc of those who disapprove of Trump overall but approve of him on the economy. — PolitiTweet.org
