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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@jbouie Part of it? A lot of the NYC press corps has known him for too long and think he's old news. Which, ironically, when combined with low name rec nationwide, deprives him of necessary media oxygen. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Booker is fighting for his presidential campaign life. He has 0 qualifying polls for the December debate. Be interesting to see if any of this has any effect. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Statistically speaking, it is the easiest to make the case for Klobuchar's electability. Over and over again, she's beat the Dem baseline in a Midwest state Trump lost less than 2 pts. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I got 50 bucks on Messam. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Is Marquette exactly right? IDK. But there was a reason I played up Nate C's #s on air a few weeks ago. IDK what the exact margin is in WI, but tis pretty clear something is going on there that national surveys aren't capturing. And this is, at EoD, an electoral college contest. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Across the board the sample is far more friendly to Trump than Marquette's last poll (so caution needed), but combine this with the NYT/Siena polling... and you get the feeling Trump is far, far from a goner in 2020. — PolitiTweet.org
MULawPoll @MULawPoll
New @mulawpoll finds Trump currently leading in head-to-head matches with Biden, Sanders, Warren and Buttigieg amonā¦ https://t.co/mMAF9cNbCI
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Obvious note: Dem primary still has a lot to work out... but needless to say Biden's 2020 run and Trump's reaction to it has certainly changed the course of the Trump presidency. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This will likely shift and move around... About the only consistency in the primary data so far has been SC... Unsure how that will react to IA/NH... etc. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
If you average all the November NH polls, it's basically a 3 way tie between Biden, Buttigieg and Warren at about 20%. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
š§ https://t.co/ELRzdKtgry https://t.co/GD434lp7u3 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@SteveKornacki Correct. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Not a lot of nonwhite voters in Iowa... but combining our last two polls, can get about 100 nonwhite respondents... Pretty clear that Buttigieg's very favs are lower among them and his unfavs are higher. I don't think this is just a name id thing in later states. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Buttigieg's getting 0% of the black vote in this Q-Pac SC poll. He isn't well known among black voters, but his unfav of 16% is unusually high for someone with low name id. https://t.co/zFYFUL3jop — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The flavor of Popeyes is better than Chick-Fil-A. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Two SC polls over the 24ish hours. Biden +26 and Biden +28 in them, powered by African-Americans. Buttigieg at an average of 5.5% in them. Quinnipiac comes out this afternoon. We'll see. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@DKarol @SteveKornacki This right here is my question (and it is a question): is there something unique about the Dem side that makes Iowa more predictive (e.g. no religious right)? Or should we include GOP for a larger sample size? (IDK the answer.) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@galendruke This is a good tweet. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@jaketapper @JohnBerman Go Bills. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Bingo. — PolitiTweet.org
Drew Savicki @SenhorRaposa
@LPDonovan Just as rural northern whites are starting to vote like their southern counterparts, southern suburbanitā¦ https://t.co/0go66y6SDh
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I distinctly recall a clip in which Bloomberg lambasted Dems running for prez because they were apologizing. Now, he is, apparently, apologizing for stop & frisk. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Some thoughts on Edwards' win in LA-Gov. 1. Urban/suburban gains for Dems continue in Trump era. 2. Black turnout increase a la Alabama. 3. Candidates matter a la Kentucky. Edwards was popular & gained in Abraham areas compared to jungle primary. https://t.co/SA4PS2rHMB — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Also this morning... I put in a historical context just how nutty what Bloomberg may and what Patrick is trying to pull off. Previous white knights (Clark, Thompson, Perry) ran when voters wanted another choice. This year pretty much no voters do. https://t.co/DsOmwnbeCD — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Can the Bills win today? https://t.co/pcRtM8s76K — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Blogging a bunch of thoughts on Buttigieg ahead in Iowa. One point: Buttigieg's moderate pivot is clearly working. Back in June his best group was very liberals & worst was moderates. Today those are flipped. https://t.co/1Ef3YVYH4E — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Candidates matter in polarized times. Edwards > Rispone. Beshear > Bevin. Edwards is a well liked governor. Bevin was most certainly not. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Polls were dynamite in LA Gov. History suggesting a better black turnout and Dem over performance in runoff vs primary also holding. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The last 6 candidates who were leading with less than 49% in Iowa at this point went on to lose Iowa and the nomination. Buttigieg may break that streak, but we got a long way to go. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I would even say this is a slight overestimation of the liberal wing... It's probably closer to 50-50, if not a little more conservative... This strengthens the point being made here by Nate... https://t.co/71GWYwdqdg — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I'd add to this: people tend to overestimate the importance of TRENDS and underestimate LEVELS. The Democratic primā¦ https://t.co/GbgBtOXe6j
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@LoganDobson I like the feeling but it gives off a weird scent that I cannot quite place. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
About 3.5 hours before the latest CNN/DMR/Selzer poll. I'll be out to dinner with some family members, but I'll be blogging a bunch of interesting findings on the poll tmrw morning. — PolitiTweet.org
