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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
(I may die tmrw, but John Kerry outperformed the fundamentals in 04. That's just a fact, and it'll be true long aft… https://t.co/Ind9gg6dog — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Baldwin is a smart pick from my end. (I know about Senate implications.) — PolitiTweet.org
Ruby Cramer @rubycramer
Happy caucus eve. Big crowd gathered of supporters waiting to hear Bernie Sanders at his Cedar Rapids field office,… https://t.co/CMEqirlfyg
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Producer: "Can you be on our show at tk" Me: "Yes, but I will need a photo of your pet as payment." — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Doesn't mean it's wrong... but keep that in mind plz. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Come on folks... I've been saying Sanders has been surging for close to a month now... but those Change Research polls in SC don't show that. The margin is basically the same as it was in early Dec. The anti-Biden house effect of Change is massive. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@LoganDobson Sounds like a lie. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Pancakes are trash. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@micahcohen @NateSilver538 You're a weird conversation. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 @micahcohen Not everyone who gets punished deserves it... though perhaps Micah does... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 JFK is a nice punishment for you. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Awesome stat here from @JoeLenski. Remember Kerry was well above 15% statewide... https://t.co/kFmBx5TBtw https://t.co/86fZFNzNWL — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Taniel Gosh they loved him. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Pepperidge Farm Remembers https://t.co/i799poBaRf https://t.co/TfPgvEl85M — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Worst winter in 20 years (technically 18) from my pov. — PolitiTweet.org
Miguel Pierre @mpierre19
January has been warm relative to normal over the Eastern US and February will likely be the same. A strong polar v… https://t.co/VoUMBd8ZfD
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Following the polls (which I failed to do adequately in 2016 primary) should have led to at least some uncertainty… https://t.co/xqmoKu73qE — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
People should go back and read 2016 coverage *as it was produced in real time*. (I go over a lot of it in the serie… https://t.co/YWXoU2sSRG
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
IDK why... but putting Delaney's hat next to Jeb! 2016 gear just feels right... https://t.co/jEVfjVPq2B — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is a slide of mine from a few weeks ago... https://t.co/DjjA8PFUsN https://t.co/qGJhHbeR44 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It seems pretty clear at this point that impeachment has disrupted the usual surge in media and voter attention to… https://t.co/zRIfQDvQTj
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 Rising tide, boats, etc. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@HotlineJosh Look at the four-way where Biden's edge was maintained over him... I wonder if it means anything for reallocation. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@PollsterPatrick Woof. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
My own little note: I am so very thankful that folks like @pollsterpatrick are out there. He goes into tough races and has a very strong track record. Moreover, he's very transparent about what he's doing. So kudos ahead of Iowa :). — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Sanders chance of winning in Iowa is going up and he's still probably south of a 2/5 shot to win. The polls folks have just not been that predictive historically. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Sanders was the top vote getter (within the MoE) in our Iowa poll three weeks ago... And some Dems against him are only going after him now. As my Father used to say, "what a production." — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Me: I think Sanders is the frontrunner in Iowa. Also me: I don't know what's going to happen in Iowa. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Twitter is going to be extra insane on Monday night... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@jmestepa At least u drive unlike Larry Enten. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
We were talking a little bit about this yesterday, but it's not just about winning. It's about beating expectations… https://t.co/mz9lx343gc — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Sanders or Warren are unelectable... Further, there are other factors at play that can easily swamp ideology... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I think the case that Biden is more electable than Sanders (and especially Warren) is fairly straightforward. Moderates do better than folks at the poles. Biden's lead vs Trump has tended to be larger... BUT (!), that's very different than saying... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I'll let Nate speak for his own work, but in my spreadsheet both matter: expectations and winning. Those who beat expectations and win (e.g. John Kerry) tend to get the biggest bounces. — PolitiTweet.org
Jonathan Bernstein @jbview
Not criticizing, because you have to do is some way, but it seems to me the bounce can come from beating expectatio… https://t.co/uenJELch8U
