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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The Bloomberg thing is sorta impossible to model. Because since when is someone willing to drop a cool billion(?) o… https://t.co/P9EMsDA7Yj — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
https://t.co/PAKOqktxzC https://t.co/nT6go7Mjig — PolitiTweet.org
Taniel @Taniel
🚨 NEW SITUATION. There's now evidence that there are some precincts still fully missing from the IDP results. And t… https://t.co/xmsbFcysRg
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
One thing I've noticed is the bounces out of NH seem to have been significantly smaller in the past few cycles... L… https://t.co/g3xju9KjGg — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Nothing quite like a breakfast at McDonald's. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I have a pretty good idea of what's going on in NH right now... Buttigieg has closed. Sanders still has something like a 5 point advantage... I have not a very good idea of what is going on nationally or in NV or SC. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
If Sanders wins in NH, it'll be by a significantly smaller margin than he did 4 years ago. Then again, McCain won i… https://t.co/BVfudfju6P — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
WAIT THIS IS 3 HOURS?! NOOOOOOOOOOOOO. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RT @mattyglesias: Slightly missing amidst the intense factionalism on Twitter is that top politicians, donors, and plutocrats are totally f… — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Sanders surged back after a heart attack. Buttigieg came back after dropping... not once, but twice. Bloomberg is l… https://t.co/HzZsoduiQ7 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@MattDabrowski True about outspending, but that is what he does. Poor Freddy. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is a real race folks — PolitiTweet.org
Mark Murray @mmurraypolitics
New NBC/Marist poll of New Hampshire -- conducted right after Iowa: Sanders 25% (+3 from Jan poll) Buttigieg 21% (… https://t.co/6DqnwxDlsl
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Indeed, Bloomberg won substantial portion of black and Latino voters in all three of his mayoral runs as a non-Dem in NYC. (He had to in order to win.) I feel like that often gets lost in coverage of him... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Buying it or not... Bloomberg's 2005 mayoral election performance is still among the most impressive... Won as a no… https://t.co/1LGrdppYHm — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
My thoughts... "Conditions are ripe for a contested Democratic convention in 2020" https://t.co/tGPN5qgUSD If you'r… https://t.co/CH8sqcs6CN — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Martin O'Malley really doesn't Bernie Sanders. My goodness. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
In the NH tracking polls, Buttigieg has gained a ridiculous amount... This seems quite consistent with what history has told us... /fin — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Like why did Hart boom in NH in 84? A large part was he did better in IA than folks thought & helped to solve the c… https://t.co/NlnDbrdhVL — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I've written about this before (https://t.co/QNV2781TNW and https://t.co/ABdeT7AUy7) & helps to explain what I think are some good historical test cases... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
In the ste count (which is being hyped by major media), Sanders got what he polled. Biden did way worse. Buttigieg… https://t.co/ozaBsrxMeW — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Some light night thoughts... My own belief is that it doesn't particularly matter who wins or loses in IA. What matters is the expectations going in & under or overperforming those in the final count. What do I mean? (1/?) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Iowa Democratic Caucuses Vote Count. https://t.co/DfRBb5ysGn — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
What hasn't these Iowa caucuses broke? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
IDK what to make of Monmouth because a. it's been a not great statewide poll for Sanders. b. Sanders clearly rose b… https://t.co/BA0UOLfzxb — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@EsotericCD Good stuff. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
If you look across the limited post-IA polling, you see (I think) notable things. 1. Biden is dropping. 2. Sanders… https://t.co/yLC2ZmhY4f — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Overheard: "I like Tulsi and Mayor Pete." — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Networks (including my own) have stuck to the SDE's almost exclusively. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Almost comical at this point. — PolitiTweet.org
Iowa Democrats @iowademocrats
There will be a minor correction to the last batch of results and we will be pushing an update momentarily.
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
You could feel it building. Everyone I spoke to in media thought Sanders would win. Stories about "confidence" were a plenty. MSM was also very clear, for better or worse, that SDEs would be the rules of the game. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The irony here is that people often get upset when the media hedges/downplays expectations for their guy (Sanders f… https://t.co/PJJ9jhTdMX
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@SeanTrende All I'm convinced of is the chance of a contested convention is up. Had Sanders had a clear IA win, tha… https://t.co/qCtFz6wfwI — PolitiTweet.org
