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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RT @WJCadigan: "A beautiful person inside and out" -@ForecasterEnten https://t.co/Vl2KLm7k2A — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@KSoltisAnderson @chris_anderson I got an april 9th? I think. 1%. It's HOLDING. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Let's stop with the BS... Voting by mail in large numbers (via absentee or all vote by mail) won't make a partisan difference. What it will do is help turnout stay up and keep folks safe. This seems like a win for everyone. https://t.co/RoHBoNp0M7 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RT @andrewbhall: What are the effects of vote-by-mail on partisan outcomes and participation? Our new paper is available now (@danmthomp @j… — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
One other random note... The Cuomo for prez is so silly. I don't get it. Like Biden has this outside of something insane happening. He's had it for a month. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Nate_Cohn FWIW, Biden was up 5 (or was it 6?) in the Marquette poll among LVs for yesterday's election. Greater than the spread for RVs in general. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Trump came close in NV and NH as well... His polling was close enough for good models to think he had some shot in CO+VA... The point is it's about opening doors. It's what Obama did in 12 too. If option a. doesn't work, option b or c may. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
What Biden really wants to do is open up as many paths as possible to 270... Ones that rely on different regions and where core demos of each state are different... That's what Trump did in 2016. A lot of focus was on what he did in the Midwest but.... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
If Biden wins AZ (where based on the data we've seen I think folks may underestimate his position), it opens up at least two doors to 270 for him. 1. Clinton states + AZ + MI + PA. 2. Clinton states + AZ + FL. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Trump's net approval rating among voters is nearly back to what it was before the rally around the flag effect took hold. Historically, it's one of, if not the, fastest abatements of an effect I've seen going back since WWII. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
For those thinking niceness doesn't matter, it seems to have gone very far in how Sanders has dealt with Biden because he personally likes Biden. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Spoke about a few weeks ago... and will say it again... Based on the data that is publicly available, FL has a pretty decent shot of being the tipping pt state. Biden is quite competitive there & he does well with older folks nationally. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Getting the feeling Biden might just be the Dem nominee... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
A friend of mine asked me how I was (I am fine) and sensed I missed going out for chicken, so she ordered me Postmates without telling me. It was so incredibly kind & so entirely unnecessary. Some people really just blow you away with how nice & caring they are. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Trump so desperately wants to reopen things back up... It's bad for public health... And more in my terrain, the data shows that it is terrible politics. Folks want to stay at home & don't expect somewhat normal routines to start for months. https://t.co/ZdzhEFeqbF — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Average the polls. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I just got off the phone with a family member... Me: "So Sanders dropped out today, as you know." Them: "What?!" Me: "You're kidding..." Them: "No, I haven't watched the news today. I was preparing my seder." This other person votes in every election. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
With the exception of increased Hispanic support, Sanders usually did the same or worse than he did four years ago. That's not how you win, when you lost the last primary by over 10 points. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Today's Video: Five reasons Sanders not only lost but did worse than he did four years ago. 1. Lack of black support. 2. No establishment backing. 3. No youth turnout surge. 4. Lost whites without a college degree. 5. Fewer caucuses. https://t.co/uf6iRQOqOA https://t.co/AiLVuA5Wtn — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This has been highly correlated with election outcomes historically... Bad trendline. https://t.co/EGjTMvjrgT https://t.co/PX1oKxNGZm — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
You can set your clock to few things more reliably than the national polling average having Biden beating Trump by between 5 and 10 pts... Usually right in the 6 to 8 pt range. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I noted in my video yesterday that NY was one of the major states (besides TX) that did not have no excuse absentee voting. — PolitiTweet.org
Andrew Cuomo @NYGovCuomo
#BREAKING: All New Yorkers will be able to vote absentee on the June 23rd primaries. New Yorkers shouldn't have to… https://t.co/z8bYS8jWxw
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden also does it with a ~6 pt lead over Trump in national polls... and with 3+ pt leads in polls in AZ, FL, PA and WI... Some of the strongest numbers for any challenger since Truman in 48... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden won the nomination.. after losing the first three primaries. He did it basically being broke going into Super Tuesday. He did it with some terrible debate performances. He did it after getting laughed off this platform by many. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Joe Biden has done it. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
LOL. Within 2 minutes I got separate emails about new polls coming. So we'll have plenty of numbers to digest. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I've written more than my fair share of Trump is up (https://t.co/MwJb4YhBld) pieces, but this headline (https://t.co/7pJ3opyiGy) is something else. Trump's approval in the poll is 40% and trails Biden by 6, but headline is "Trump holds base"? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This poll follows the pattern that I've written about before that Trump's approval bump is concentrated most among those who don't vote. https://t.co/kF6S2DoRk9 — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Very unusual nugget for the CNN poll this morning... Trump's net approval with voters (-9) is lower than with all adults (-7). Only second time that's ever happened & that other time was just by a point. Trump's actually down 2 (insignificant) in voter net approval vs. last month — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Had a zoom meeting today... I got all dressed up... Turns out it was audio only... I put those (sweat)pants on for nothing. — PolitiTweet.org
