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Showing page 102 of 309.
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Scroll through these questions from new Huff Post/YouGov poll... but I think the tell on how this could impact the race is question 10... Note: this is if the allegation is true. https://t.co/LMdnlz0zJN https://t.co/CPDGmgUBvr — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I will say there's been some national polling (Gallup included) that's actually not been bad for Trump... So that should be kept an eye on... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
And Biden's doing well in polls that did well in 2016/2018... Like Biden's up 6 in Harper Polling in PA. That's a pollster that had the race tied in PA in 16. Or down just 1 in GA in Cygnal polling. Cygnal had Kemp +2 in their final 18 GA Gov poll. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The state polling the last two weeks from pollsters I trust over has been clear. Biden is ahead in the states he needs to win... and if this were the polling on E-Day... He'd been in strong shape. *This is where I say we have 6 months to go. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
RT @ClareMalone: So far, establishment Democrats are with standing with Biden in the face of the Tara Reade allegations. To hold onto the p… — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The 8 am hour today was the first time this week (and I'm guessing a long time) at which Google searches for Joe Biden were greater than that of Donald Trump. By 9 am, Trump again had more searches. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Hard to believe these are both right... https://t.co/usw0sVRcgj — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Morning TV will be interesting to watch tmrw. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
So is Twitter going to do this Gallup poll (that admittedly looks very little like most else) or not? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The Biden play was to pick off a few voters in the middle... and hope that the progressives who don't like you will choose you in a Biden-Trump matchup as a lesser of two evils... Right now, that's very much the case. Will it hold? We'll see. (8/8) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
That in turn is keeping his favorable high even with missing part of Dem base... but given a choice these Dem voters are going with Biden when faced off against Trump. It's actually a pretty good example of potential electability if it holds... (7/?) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
So this lot of GOP voters who dislike Trump & might still vote for him is just not there. What Biden's doing if you believe the polls is pulling a small but significant portion of GOP leaners into the fav column (6/?) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Much of what was going on in 2016 was there was more than 25% of self-id'd GOPers who held an unfavorable view of Trump. The vast majority voted for Trump. Today, the GOP is near uniform in its favorable view of Trump... (5 or is it 6/?) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Look at the complexion of that group in say recent CNN polling for 2020. The double-haters' party id (with leaners allocated) was about 80% lean Dem and about 15% lean GOP. And of course, Biden held a similar lead over Trump (4/?) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
One simple explanation is that this group was more Republican than Democratic in 2016, 34% to 19% (rest indies). That 15 pt margin looks awfully similar to the 17 pt Trump won this group by overall, doesn't it? (3/?) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Biden's the only winning among them by something like 50 to sometimes north of 60 points... So what has changed? Why is Biden doing so much better than Clinton was among this group? (2/?) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Gonna talk about the double-haters (i.e. those who dislike both major party candidates)... In 16, these voters infamously went for Trump by a 17 pt margin... and with them, he won the election... This year, as I've written about a ton, that's not the case. (1/?) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
In case it is clear, Biden's in the best polling position for a challenger at this point in a prez election since... well probably since FDR in 32. Obviously plenty of time to go, but yea. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
But Biden holds a pretty clear advantage in MI right now... and few voters there volunteered a third party option in recent polls... So we'll have to see on that... But things would need to get tighter for Amash to be a player... (3/3) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
3. I went back and looked at Johnson voters. Most said they would have stayed home without Johnson on the ballot. Without Johnson on the ballot, the national margin would have shifted by less than 0.2 pts. 4. The one question I have is Michigan (2/3) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
My Amash thoughts. 1. He's at like 2%. Early polls tends to overestimate, not underestimate 3rd party candidates. 2. Polling shows that the voters who disliked Biden/Trump are disproportionately liberal... Not the libertarian type. (1/?) https://t.co/MVmik4N4pV — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@sethdmichaels Smells right to me. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I feel like I've been through two stages in viewing politics... 1. Disbelief at clear hypocrisy. 2. Disbelief at those who seem surprised by hypocrisy. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 How effective is the flu vaccine? — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Last go around, we had the two least liked major party candidates of all time... They combined for 94% of the vote. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Gary Johnson was polling at 11% in a March 2016 Monmouth poll. He got 3%. Third party candidates tend to fade... Amash is polling at like 2%-3% in the few polls we can average... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Well, there's something else... [Unlikely to make much of a difference.] https://t.co/I7HQATEcOb — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@nymetrowx Could have used this... IDK... in all of winter. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@Nate_Cohn "And we let it off the hook!" (Hope someone gets this reference.) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@SeanTrende You're right.. better make it a double with bacon! — PolitiTweet.org
