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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
You look at the polling and 2 things seem to be true. 1. A sizable number of folks think the Reade allegations have some basis in truth. 2. Most voters don't care... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@ryanhanrahan i really should move. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@aedwardslevy @Robillard I liked it. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
History and polling agree with this. Just winning on the economy isn't likely to be enough for Trump. We have historical precedent for this type of thing... https://t.co/g1QxdLw9Fa https://t.co/Cf68Q1ZBGu — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I don't know, a more robust response to coronavirus would likely be much better for Trump's re-election prospects t… https://t.co/zxuFHHwHwI
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Eh, I'm gonna wait for more data from Montana... When you see an online poll from an outfit that doesn't normally do it... Plus a result that doesn't jibe with anything I've read + heard about... Lots of caution should be the rule. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Spicy chicken sandwich, spicy chicken nuggets, large fries, coke zero. Thank you. — PolitiTweet.org
Vaughn Sterling @vplus
One in five Wendy's is out of beef, analyst says https://t.co/1LeHFDsjaZ
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Bottom line here: "It's the economy, stupid"... except for when it isn't... and this very much looks like an election in which it won't be... or at least a significant chunk won't be. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
And you could see this well in history. The economy in 68 was doing ridiculously well... but Vietnam War (a top problem) was going on. It forced Johnson from the race, more voters thought Nixon could be handle it, and Nixon won. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The idea that Trump's going to win if the economy comes back doesn't make a slew of sense if the virus is still devastating. The polling now right now shows COVID-19 as a top problem more so than almost any non-econ problem in past 20 years per Gallup. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
A look at history shows when you have a big non-economic issue (e.g coronavirus) the candidate who leads on how to best handle it wins. If Trump wants to win, he'll need to improve on handling coronavirus. Biden's beating him on handling it by a big margin https://t.co/Cf68Q1ZBGu — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@SeanTrende I mean figure you might remember it if you were 6? At least have a shot... based on the Census numbers I see... north of 1 million would have been... which is crazy. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Folks, Biden's going nowhere if a. he is continuing to beat Trump in the polls, which so far he is. b. Dem voters/elected officials are sticking by him, which so far they are. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Per Morning Consult, Biden's lead was 4 pts from May 2-3. From Apr 27 - May 3, it was 4 pts. From April 20-26, it was 4 pts... For the month of April, it averaged 4 pts. Quite steady. https://t.co/rHViTDDlDy — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@jbview unfortunately, data i have doesn't have the McGovern matchup... BUT (!), the matchups they did ask were quite close. Muskie led by 3! — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Will have more this weekend, but I'm fairly confident that this is the most steady prez race during the first 4 months of the election year with an incumbent running since at least 1944. (*Note 72 left out with no January or March polling data.) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Averaged all the polls for the 2020 campaign over the past year and a half... Biden +6.3 pts. Took an average of all the polls over the last month... Biden +6.3 pts. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
@NateSilver538 Cuse me as I go and have a coke/pepsi cocktail. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
And apparently https://t.co/lXAedJIXtk — PolitiTweet.org
Jacquelyn2020 @_Jacquelyn2020
I stand with @JoeBiden https://t.co/oiVLJfZXLw
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
TBH, I'm far more interested in what Jacquelyn, the NYT elevator operator, has to say about Biden than the op-ed/editorial pages. She turned out to be far more representative of Dem voter opinions than the opinion writers of the Times. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This was really solid imho. https://t.co/KMRQ5a02UX — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This may seem obvious/corny... but winning campaigns is not about being the perfect candidate. (There are no perfect candidates.) It's about being the right candidate for the moment/campaign. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
A lot of folks are either dismissing or simply don't believe pretty clear evidence that Trump's in more danger of losing than any incumbent at this point since probably Hoover in 32. (*Doesn't mean he will lose. Still a long way to go.) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
This is something I've come across constantly... People are like "of course Trump will win." And while that's definitely possible, I'm like "have you looked at the polls lately?"... I was surprised to look back & people thought the GOP would hold onto the House in 2018... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
Trump has broken a key poll ?. Historically asking folks who they thought would win was more predictive than asking them who'd they vote for. Didn't work in 2016 or '18. Folks think Trump will win as he trails in polls. Trump's a politician, not a magician https://t.co/K9HD0bd8LA — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
I also love this question... Have you seen Biden/Trump too much/not enough... Biden - 24% too much, 47% not enough. Trump - 53% too much, 11% not enough. — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The dates here are key (well after the Larry King interview was publicized)... The Biden lead remains... exactly the same as it has been... 6 points nationally in a CBS/YouGov poll. This among LVs. We'll get more polls this week. https://t.co/jD5KNw5UMm https://t.co/AWVReYKRJe — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The GOP actually has the easiest pickup (Alabama), but then next 11 most likely pickups are actually Democratic opportunities. States likes AZ, CO, ME then NC then IA, KS and MT... and it goes on from there... — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
The Democrats just have such a wide playing field... By my math, they have at least a 5% chance of winning in 25 seats. (They only have 12 of the seats up.) They're not overwhelming favorites in any one seat to pickup, but the broadness of the field adds up. (2/?) — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
A year ago I wrote that Republicans were favored to hold the Senate. Based on my modeling of past years, the Senate now slightly tilts towards the Democrats. A fairly major reversal. https://t.co/ZXX5B5tszK — PolitiTweet.org
(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten
If you look closely enough, there may... may... be a slight uptick in Trump's approval rating in the last week. Lines up very with the theory of less news coverage for him is good. (You also see his Google searches dropping.) — PolitiTweet.org
