(((Harry Enten)))

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

3 months ago, Biden was getting crushed in NH... Honestly, it feels like it occurred about 50 years ago. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@islivingston OMFG!!!!!! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Chris is a good man, and this is a beautiful reflection. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@islivingston WOW! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

At least compared to the exit polls, Biden's net fav in current polls is 11 pts lower than Clinton's among liberals. But it's 23 pts higher among moderates... and 17 pts higher among conservatives. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@SteveKornacki Heaven! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

In fact, this is confirmed by the polling data. More people think Trump is going to win than lose. And more folks than not thought the GOP would hold onto the House in 2018. https://t.co/Z0cgT5Wzfy https://t.co/K9HD0bd8LA — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

So if that holds, the chance of a lot of movement in this race seems smaller than you might expect... Other nugget: fewer have a strong opinion of Biden than Trump, but the 46% who have a strong opinion of Biden is itself a record for a challenger. https://t.co/Xd0c9zNEQN — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Now here's a big thing: a lot has been made of how races are becoming more stable (more on that tmrw). A large reason may be voters have stronger opinions of candidates early. The two incumbent races looking like this one (04 & 12) saw minimal poll shifts. https://t.co/Xd0c9zNEQN — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Meanwhile, only 46% of voters have a strong opinion of Biden... So Trump's plan makes sense... Here's the issue. Everything we've seen so far in the polls suggest voters are determining their votes on how they feel about Trump, not Biden. https://t.co/Xd0c9zNEQN — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Why is Trump going to go Death Star on Biden? The answer is more voters hold a strong view (favorable or unfavorable) of Trump than any nominee in polling history. 69%, which is even greater than Trump from four years ago. Voters are locked in on Trump. https://t.co/Xd0c9zNEQN — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@SteveKornacki We should be in Monticello, NY. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Just for fun… I pulled all the polls from RCP after the GOP primary ended in 2016 (May 3rd)… Averaging all of them… Clinton 46, Trump 42… I think it sorta gets lost that over the longterm (i.e. final 6 months) the 16 race was actually pretty close. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@islivingston I wish I was here https://t.co/7Ma4nHoVrD — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Folks, I am aware of that map showing Bills fans dominating the landscape. All I can say is Go Bills. I've never regretted my fandom for one second. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@islivingston TAKE THEM TO SEE THE SNOW!!!! — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

The economy continues to be an area of strength for Trump, despite the obvious economic hardship... And his overall approval remains in that same "not good, but close enough to keep him viable in November" area. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

RCP Trump econ net approval: Today +8, 1 month ago +12, 2 months ago +11, 3 months ago +17, 4 months ago +14, 5 months ago +10, 6 months ago +8... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Now, I should say that Gore and H. Clinton did win the popular vote... but I still think the enthusiasm gap is an interesting little fact that is just one of many data points (many of which are favorable to Biden) that I'm keeping an eye out on. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

One warning signal for Biden is far fewer of his voters say they're enthusiastic about him than Trump's voters say of him... Now all votes count the same... But the winner of at least the last eight elections was the candidate whose voters were more enthusiastic about them. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@nymetrowx 13% chance of a record... — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@POLITICO_Steve Smells like two screens :). — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@kyletblaine Once turned a bad date into a good one by taking said date to a place with Golden Girls memorabilia on the wall. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

And while some don't think ideology matters, there's a slew of literature to argue that it very much does... and Biden's perceived moderate ways may be part of the reason he is leading Trump right now. https://t.co/PglMCly9ot — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

One of the underplayed facets to me about 2016 campaign was that Trump was seen as more moderate than Clinton... https://t.co/yyf5pHLcxg Well, right now, Biden is seen as more moderate than Trump. https://t.co/yu3G91Lch5 — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

RT @pastpunditry: This might be my favorite episode so far. Not only was @ForecasterEnten a blast to talk to, but this story let us explore… — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

I don't care what campaign you are... When I go to watch my Full House intros, I don't want any political ads. Thank you. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@LoganDobson Wayyyy too much college grads in the poll. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@SteveKornacki Could be months, lol. Well on the horserace anyway. — PolitiTweet.org

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

RT @PollsterPatrick: Some context on those @justinamash numbers in the latest @MonmouthPoll https://t.co/Fz2dzSwLXJ https://t.co/VbU07oJRRn — PolitiTweet.org