ian bremmer

ian bremmer @ianbremmer

i’ll be surprised if russia is still exporting significant gas to europe come winter. a full cutoff of russian gas = 2-3% hit to eu gdp. that’s going to hurt. but in a year they’ll be in far better shape. and russia’s leverage will be gone. — PolitiTweet.org

ian bremmer @ianbremmer

the europeans have held together on 7 rounds of russian sanctions, despite significant economic hardship they have unanimously welcomed ukraine as a candidate eu member they’re very unlikely to break apart over a hard winter — PolitiTweet.org