Michael McFaul

@McFaul ↗

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Last Checked March 28, 2023

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Sun Dec 05 19:50:24 +0000 2021

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Michael McFaul @McFaul

If the IC assesses that the probability of Putin invading Ukraine is 10%, then the job of Biden, Blinken, Sullivan et al is to reduce that percentage to 5% or 1%. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 5, 2021 Hibernated

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Michael McFaul @McFaul

The job of an intelligence officer is to make probabilistic assessments about the intentions of foreign actors. The job of a US foreign policymaker or diplomat is to try to shape those intentions in ways that serve US interests. 1/THREAD. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 5, 2021 Hibernated

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Michael McFaul @McFaul

Those spending so much time arguing about probabilities should spend more time discussing creative ways to influence these probabilities, no matter if you think it's 70% or 10% probability of invasion. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 5, 2021 Hibernated