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Bill Kristol @BillKristol
Against Democratic complacency: 2020 national margin is same as 2012, ~ 4%. In 2012 WI was Obama +7%, PA +5.4%. In 2020 WI and PA are Biden +.6%. WI and PA now 3+% to right of nation, trending R. In 2024 Trump 2020 states + WI & PA, + 1 of NV or MI (both trending R) or AZ, wins. — PolitiTweet.org