David Davis

@DavidDavisMP ↗

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Last Checked April 16, 2022

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Fri Dec 24 08:38:07 +0000 2021

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David Davis @DavidDavisMP

It is quite hard to know what reasonable worst case means. For example the Imperial model has always been an overestimate, generally by a very large factor, right back to mad cow disease. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 24, 2021

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David Davis @DavidDavisMP

However, the so called 'reasonable worst case' scenarios have often been represented as the only forecast, and it has not been volunteered where on the probability distribution it falls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 24, 2021

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David Davis @DavidDavisMP

'Reasonable worst case' is a political phrase, not a statistical one. They should find a measure that is more clear in its basis. They should also do more to explain the primary drivers/assumptions underpinning the models. We might then give them more credibility. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 24, 2021