Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 4, 2022

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Thu Oct 13 19:30:41 +0000 2022

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I think my stylized picture may have obscured my basic point. Yes, the Cleveland Fed disaggregates shelter — it's not literally a flat section of the distribution. But that's not important 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

think of the distribution of price changes as looking like this: 3/ https://t.co/DGBhe8WWFk

Posted Oct. 13, 2022

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And the fact that shelter is basically telling us about the economy a year ago is therefore a problem. Yes, I and others should have realized this last year, when true core was much higher than measured. But that doesn't change the fact that it's a bad guide now 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 13, 2022

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The important point instead is that shelter isn't a small sliver of the CPI that for a while happened to be in the middle. It's a huge chunk, so large that even if shelter isn't the median it's hard for the median to diverge much from shelter 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 13, 2022