Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 19, 2022

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Tue Oct 04 20:17:06 +0000 2022

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The red line is the approximate relationship since we more or less emerged from lockdown — eyeball econometrics, as I said. The dotted green line is what it would take to restore 2019 vacancies/unemployment ratio — apparently around 5 percent unemployment, which is grim 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 4, 2022

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In that case, as Blanchard/Domash/Summers argue, recent data suggest a substantial worsening from pre pandemic tradeoffs. Here's the historical Beveridge curve, truncated to exclude the intense lockdown period 5/ https://t.co/Jz4c0SwMjb — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 4, 2022

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But as you can see, the August data brought us well below that line, and fast. In fact, 2 more months like that (unlikely, but still) would restore the old V/U. This suggests that the disruptions in the labor market may be healing 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 4, 2022