Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 8, 2022

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Sat Sep 03 13:37:49 +0000 2022

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In the 60s and 70s it seemed reasonable to assume that expected inflation was equal to recent past inflation — in fact, the previous year's inflation looked like a pretty good proxy. So the Phillips curve could be rearranged to Change in inflation = f(u) 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 3, 2022

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

There is some level of u — call it u* — for which f(u)=0. One way or another, u* (which can change over time!) is highly significant. But exactly how it's significant depends on what determines expectations 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 3, 2022

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In that case u* became the NAIRU — the rate of unemployment at which inflation neither rose nor fell. The picture looked like this 5/ https://t.co/DiFKAlYyot — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 3, 2022