Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 14, 2022

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Thu Jul 14 14:46:01 +0000 2022

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Straw man? Not long ago markets thought bitcoin was worth 70K. I use market pricing as (a) one indication of whether inflation expectations getting entrenched (b) as a challenge: if ur view is very different, you should think about why — PolitiTweet.org

A year ago financial market pricing expected 2.4% inflation over the following 12 months. We got 9.1% inflation.… https://t.co/cWptKZ6VXa

Posted July 14, 2022

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I actually don't understand where that number comes from. Inflation protected bond coming due July 15 2023 yielding ~-.3; 1-year nominal rate ~3.2. So shouldn't year-ahead be around 3.5? — PolitiTweet.org

Can someone explain to me why the market went from pricing in 5% year-ahead inflation to 1.7% year-ahead inflation?… https://t.co/0LUMJVXM4N

Posted July 14, 2022

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

@jasonfurman I know they use swaps data. But this seems unreasonable. Either some weird stuff going on in swap market or some kind of data error. Even with falling commodity prices and June behind us, that size drop seems implausible — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 14, 2022