Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman ↗

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Last Checked July 3, 2020

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Thu May 30 06:42:43 +0000 2019

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Every modern recession has been preceded by a yield curve inversion; every modern inversion has been followed by a recession. So this is pretty striking. And it's actually even more striking given that short-term rates are low 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 30, 2019 Hibernated

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

There's nothing magic about the yield curve – bond investors operate off the same information as the rest of us, so it's a gauge of optimism/pessimism rather than something that might actually cause a recession. But damn, it's striking 1/ https://t.co/9wrUXWEidt — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 30, 2019 Hibernated

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Basically, short rates can only fall so much, while they can rise without limit. So there's an upward bias to the spread between long rates, which reflect expected future short rates, compared with short rates; not as much as there used to be, but still 3/ https://t.co/uKf6E5QuKZ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 30, 2019 Hibernated