Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman ↗

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Last Checked May 10, 2020

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Mon Mar 25 12:49:22 +0000 2019

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The thing is, nobody thinks this is a causal relationship: an inverted yield curve doesn't cause a recession. Instead, it's telling you about average investor opinion: bond buyers see economic weakness ahead, and believe that the Fed will be cutting rates 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

A brief (?) thread on the yield curve. As you may have heard, long-term US interest rates are now slightly below short-term rates. This doesn't happen often – and as far as I can tell, each previous instance has been followed by recession 1/ https://t.co/Uq7yjr3Jwa — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2019 Hibernated

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

There is, however, a twist right now which makes the inversion even scarier than it looks, at least a bit. Previous inversions took place at much higher short rates -- 5 or 6 percent, versus 2.5 percent now. This matters 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 25, 2019 Hibernated