Zack Beauchamp

@zackbeauchamp ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 14, 2022

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Wed Jan 26 19:57:06 +0000 2022

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Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

Obviously people disagree all the time about what's likely to happen next in politics, but here the breadth and depth of disagreement between smart analysts is pretty striking — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 26, 2022

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Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

I have now read persuasive takes from well-informed, well-respected experts that argue: -all-out war in Ukraine is the most likely option -lesser escalation is most likely -diplomatic solution is most likely This just underscores how opaque and confusing the situation is. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 26, 2022

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Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp

I think part of the reason is that a lot of the analysis depends on one's read of Putin personally: the value he puts on loss of Russian life, how worried he is about a protracted insurgency, etc. And that's <insert "literal Kremlinology" joke here> — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 26, 2022