(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten ↗

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Last Checked March 11, 2022

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Wed Nov 03 19:43:42 +0000 2021

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Voters don't care about Donald Trump. They care about Joe Biden's unpopularity. VA is a good example: the 16% of Virginia voters who didn't like Biden or Trump, Youngkin won by better than 2 to 1. This was a key bloc that put Youngkin over the edge. https://t.co/mKCEsn16A0 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2021

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Here were the final polls in NJ (all Murphy leads): +6, +4, +8, +9, +9, +11, +4. Avg of 7.3. My guess is at the end of the day, we're probably heading toward a 5 point miss. 30% of all gov races had final polling averages miss by at least 5 points from 1998 to 2020. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2021

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

@ForecasterEnten The one thing that is constant in all these races where the GOP overperformed 2020 is that Biden is unpopular. And Democrats trying to play up Trump are finding out that voters care about the man in charge (i.e. Biden) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 3, 2021