(((Harry Enten)))

@ForecasterEnten ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 5, 2021

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Sat Dec 28 15:11:36 +0000 2019

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

There hasn't been a live-interview/cell calling poll in IA in 1.5 months. So the averages are reliant on a few polls that don't do this / plenty of older data. Or in the 538 case, getting an assist from national trends... Both methods show similar pictures. 2/? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2019 Hibernated

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

Generally what the best guesstimate in Iowa tells us now is that Buttigieg, Biden & Sanders right at around 20% (give or take). Warren is closer to 15%. But much of that belief comes from assumptions/polling that may not hold... 1/? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2019 Hibernated

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(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten

One other thing to realize is that given the volatility of the IA electorate, the lead any candidate had now could easily go poof by the time of the caucuses anyway. Primary polling is TOUGH. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 28, 2019 Hibernated