Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What does Eeckhout's procedure add? It doesn't throw out data before past 3 months. Maybe more important, "artisanal" inflation measures can tempt analysts into choosing measures that tell them what they want to hear. So there's something to be said for a hands-free filter 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In fact, most practical analysts are using a variety of methods to try and extract the inflation signal from the noise, typically looking at 3-month changes in an index that excludes volatile stuff like energy and stuff with known long lags, mainly shelter 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

First off, I basically agree with Eeckhout's conclusion: underlying inflation has fallen fast, although not quite ready to say that it's 2 percent. Also agree with the general point about the need to smooth but not too much: monthly is too noisy, annual too far behind reality 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I've been a bit behind on commenting on this widely cited recent analysis, but thought I might still have something to contribute. Warning: very wonkish, not for normal humans 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Well, it looks as if the Riders of Rohan will be coming to save Gondor after all. (PS: I'm not actually a LOTR fan) https://t.co/qXTTYQljK4 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

PS: My broadly similar take from a few months ago https://t.co/y5cHCPeCwK — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

During my year in the government, my inbox was full of documents labeled SECRET NOFORN NOCONTRACT PROPIN ORCON. At least 95 percent contained nothing that hadn't already been reported in the Washington Post. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Related: getting a lot of pushback on the latest column from people saying debt will be a huge problem bc of much higher interest rates. But no good reason to believe that will happen https://t.co/dT5NCHAYlO — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Olivier and I are on the same page. Once inflation is tamed — which seems to be happening surprisingly fast — we'll be back in an era of low rates and excess savings https://t.co/WHlxCcftGD — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Now, some in the media are visibly trying to bring back the Very Serious People environment — kind of the way some on the political side are trying to bring back "but her emails". But I don't think it will work. And if it doesn't, GOP debt blackmail will be much weakened 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Oh, and the "government spending creates inflation" trope kind of missed its moment, with the 2021-22 inflation surge looking, um, transitory 5/ https://t.co/UjN3E7C5rS — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

More subtly, long-term debt projections have come way down; still not rosy, but far less alarming than they were circa 2011. More about this soon. And the whole deficit-scold movement, while it still exists, has receded into the background 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But a dozen years have passed since Bowles and Simpson predicted a fiscal crisis within 2 years absent drastic action; it didn't happen, and despite recent Fed-driven increases interest rates are about the same now as they were when B-S were making their dire predictions 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Back in 2011, there was a bizarre elite consensus that we were in a fiscal crisis; as Ezra Klein pointed out at the time, this consensus was so strong that the media dropped the conventions of reportorial objectivity and openly sided with the deficit scolds 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

According to Jeff Stein, the Biden admin strategy on the debt ceiling is to stare Rs down: make no concessions and dare them to provoke a crisis. I hope it works; if it does, one main reason will be the near-extinction of the Very Serious People 1/ https://t.co/4A6tprGCFS — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

We'll get more data in the weeks ahead, but at this point the burden of proof lies on anyone claiming that we had more than a, well, transitory inflation spike that's mostly behind us 6/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Recent wage growth running about the same as late 90s and just before 2007-9 recession. Doesn't exactly scream "wage-price spiral"! 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

What about wages? Running hotter than eve of the pandemic. But here's a longer view, using nonsupervisory wages (longer time series) 4/ https://t.co/fIQXcWc9VG — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But anyway, the truth is striking. Here's 3-month "supercore" excluding food energy shelter and used cars: 3/ https://t.co/fboFnDaSkY — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Several reasons for this. Too many media reports focus on yoy inflation, so miss the big turn. Traditional core inflation still reflecting rent increases from a year ago. And asymmetric reporting: breathless coverage of rising inflation, disinflation not so much 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

One thing I've been noticing in my correspondence is how many people think inflation is still running wild; the big deceleration in the 2nd half of 2022 hasn't broken through to public consciousness 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In which Jamie Dimon of all people gives me the opportunity for some bad jokes along with the analysis https://t.co/gs8dwm5Sf5 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Ok, media, where’s the beef? — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Making the debt ceiling story as simple as I can. But it's difficult to get people to understand something when their political posturing depends on not understanding it https://t.co/ufvqrbgyUx — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I was curious to see how the fire-and-brimstone inflation crowd would react to improving data. To my surprise and slight disappointment, many of them seem to be admitting that a soft landing is possible 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Prices moderating everywhere; wage growth still elevated but moderating in 5 districts. Goes along with BLS, Atlanta Fed, Indeed etc. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I haven't seen a lot of attention to the latest Beige Book, but it does seem to confirm other narratives, especially about moderating inflation 1/ https://t.co/Wpbaq8m4FB — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Fwiw, core PPI telling the same story as almost every other indicator: inflation rolled over in the 2nd half of 2022 https://t.co/e8UMY3zViG — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @WHCOS: More work to be done -- but so much progress on the economy under @POTUS Don't believe me? Ask Nobel prize winning economist,… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @dsquareddigest: "transitory" was always a bad word because it implies something measurable in months, when the real question was "is in… — PolitiTweet.org