Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

CBO's main projections were for 10 years, but it also updated its long-run budget projections. Here's how those projections for Medicare changed since last July 2/ https://t.co/TieOBhalFq — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Last week CBO issued its latest budget projections. And every report I saw conveyed the impression that they were bad news, reinforcing the case that Medicare and Social Security are unsustainable. But that's not what we learned 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Judging from some reactions to the headline, maybe no dark sarcasm on the opinion page? But what would be the fun in that? https://t.co/K71lRYhAY2 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Sad that Roger Waters has become a Putin apologist. But not going to cancel his music 3/ https://t.co/zQujgIYnF7 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Cultural reference 2/ https://t.co/cSk85MT2H8 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Remarkably, I've been getting some complaints about my headline's grammar 1/ https://t.co/K71lRYi8NA — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @nytopinion: “Our great old standby — core inflation — has turned out to be a really, really misleading number at this point,” @paulkrug… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Also tricky bc you want to use things you know — used car prices are volatile, official shelter inflation lags — but avoid motivated reasoning, excluding stuff until you get the answer you want. One does one's best. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @joshtpm: I tend to think of trillion dollar coins and 14th amendment as econ nerd fanfic for the debt ceiling. But Paul Krugman tells T… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Sunsets are bad. Unless they actually involve the sun setting, preferably over the ocean with a drink in hand https://t.co/KHJd81CuuI — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In other words, the data don't actually say that major benefit cuts are inevitable; modest tax hikes plus cost control might be enough. 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Over the past decade medical costs actually grew much less than expected — ie, these projections shouldn't be taken as gospel. And one way to deal with long-run budget problems is to tackle health costs, which are far higher here than in other advanced countries 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Yes, an aging population will raise costs, and something will eventually have to be done. But much of the projected cost rise doesn't reflect demography; it reflects an *assumption* that medical costs will rise rapidly. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And entitlement spending is indeed expected to rise substantially in the decades ahead. But important to bear in mind this, from CBO long-run budget outlook: 2/ https://t.co/K4Db4RwQa2 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

We're talking about Medicare and Social Security again — thanks, Rick Scott! — and even as Republicans reenact the Monty Python "run away" scene, some of the Very Serious People are popping up to resume their entitlement-bashing 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @TwterlessKalina: Hey EconNerds, come let @RyanWHerzog and I ask all of your burning econ questions to @paulkrugman! The economy is bonk… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @RyanWHerzog: Let's talk inflation! @TwterlessKalina and I are facilitating a QA on current issues in Economics with @paulkrugman on 2-1… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I look at this measure too. One way to see it: on a 3-month basis, a year ago it was running 5 points above the Fed's target. 2/3 of that excess has now gone away, without any increase in unemployment. But we're not all the way there. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This headline almost gave me a heart attack — CEA chair, while a fine and important job, would be a serious demotion. But Lael is getting the NEC — and Jared Bernstein the CEA. Congrats to both https://t.co/NdPhhoI2l8 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Underlying inflation is almost surely way down since mid-2022, but probably still running a point or more above the Fed's 2 percent target. The big story is still that disinflation has proved surprisingly easy, but we aren't all the way there yet 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And this tells us nothing about current inflationary pressures. It's the lagged reflection of a rent surge driven largely by work from home — a rent surge that ended many months ago; market rents are now flat or even falling 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Your regular reminder: a lot of this latest inflation number — core even more than headline — reflects shelter: 1/ https://t.co/Rq19zomUcQ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

My baseline view is that the economy is still probably running unsustainably hot, and that inflation is down substantially but probably running above target. Unlikely that we'll get enough news Tuesday to move that view very much 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So we'll get headlines about inflation rising, especially given the BLS change in seasonal adjustment. But whether it's actually good or bad news will depend on the details — and may be very hard to discern 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The key point: Some of the temporary factors that were holding inflation down, especially falling used car prices, are probably over. On the other side, official shelter prices are still rising fast, even though market rents are probably falling, because of known lags 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I suppose I should preregister some views about the upcoming CPI report, so I don't get accused of making excuses when (as seems likely) it shows a significant uptick. Because it probably will — for reasons that tell us little about how we're actually doing on inflation 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So let's not act as if Biden was engaged in some kind of gotcha. For more than three decades Republicans have been trying to eviscerate SS and Medicare whenever they thought they had a political opportunity to do so 10/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Let's also add that if you have absolutely no intention of ever cutting Social Security and Medicare, you don't set up a process where the entire programs have to be reapproved every five years. As Biden might say, c'mon, man 9/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So now we have Rick Scott saying that just because he called for sunsetting Medicare and Social Security he wasn't calling for sunsetting them. Biden used the same words Scott did 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

After the Republican takeover of the House in 2010, Paul Ryan pushed a plan to convert Medicare into a voucher system, although as with "privatization" he insisted that calling vouchers vouchers was a left-wing smear 7/ https://t.co/Mb7H7oNHzX — PolitiTweet.org