Paul Krugman

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Obviously we've had problems, and would do things differently with the benefit of hindsight. But does this outcome really look like a catastrophe? 8/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Maybe new data will make the picture look worse in a few months. But right now it looks as if we achieved rapid recovery at the cost of maybe 20 months of elevated inflation. 7/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Meanwhile, we seem to have avoided the "scarring" many feared, with the labor market recovering to pre-crisis levels far faster than it did after the financial crisis 6/ https://t.co/W3InIcTAFH — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

And here's average hourly earnings, skipping the period when pandemic compositional effects caused huge distortions 5/ https://t.co/EqGSvZwMEV — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Here's "supercore" inflation — ex food, energy, shelter (which we know is very lagged) and used cars 4/ https://t.co/5XX4jq4rfR — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But now inflation seems to be coming down as fast as it went up. The new Team Transitory warns that this improvement won't last — but it's getting harder to make that case 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The opening salvo was the American Rescue Plan, which came in for immense criticism as "the most irresponsible fiscal policy in 50 years". Soaring inflation seemed to vindicate the critics 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

We're coming up on the 2nd anniversary of Biden's inauguration, and I have a few (not very original) thoughts about his economic policy 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

I guess sticky prices ... aren't, at least lately 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Noodling around on inflation. Of all the measures of "core", the one that comes closest to the underlying economic concept is sticky prices. They look like this 1/ https://t.co/ZEVxioZiq1 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Getting hard to stay grim https://t.co/QR2pp0ZKbE — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Jason Furman doing the same calculation https://t.co/FDZb8YmJlt — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

At this point the case for rate hikes has a real one-eyed-bearded-man-with-a-limp feel — you have to use a weirdly narrow measure to still see an inflation problem. Here's a more normal measure, 3-mo rate of change https://t.co/kF49AtWc3o — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

So probably somewhere between 140 and 150 million? 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

63 million on Medicare, 89 million on Medicaid, but there are around 12 million dual-enrolled. So that's about 140 million. Most Social Security recipients are also on Medicare, but some people retire as early as 62, so there are some not yet getting Medicare 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Utility post: How many people depend on Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security? We have total enrollment, but these numbers involve a lot of double counting 1/: https://t.co/AYmqcRbvcM — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @josheidelson: A US House committee has once again been renamed “Education & the Workforce” rather than “& Labor” now that GOP is back i… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Grossly unfair, McCarthy isn't in any real sense part of the leadership — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Over the past 3 mos, wages growing 4.1%. Underlying inflation now under 3? Wait for more data, obv, but looking shockingly good 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Relevant to yesterday's report on wages: in 2018-19 AHE grew 3.1%, core prices 1.9% 1/ https://t.co/84st4it5w9 — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Right now, both wage and price data suggest an economy not far above target inflation — with 3.5% unemployment! Ultra-soft landing territory, almost too good to believe. Can't they release these reports in the evening, so we can drink either in celebration or sorrow? 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

At this point I'm starting to feel as if the BLS is just messing with our heads (not really, they're doing the best they can, but still). Not just volatile monthly numbers, but big revisions causing huge volatility even in 3 or 6 month averages 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But those of us who saw it early were ridiculed for being "shrill" — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

More seriously, will there be anyone with whom to make a deal? Biden may have to mint the coin or use some other exotic strategy bc there's no alternative 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

But you can't shame House Rs into avoiding a financial crisis if, when we hit the ceiling, they're on the 600th ballot in a still unsuccessful attempt to elect a Speaker 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

In particular, I was baffled by the failure of Democrats to use the lame duck to raise the debt ceiling. Maybe the idea was that Rs could be shamed into avoiding a crisis later this year 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Like many others, I'm experiencing a fair amount of MAGAfreude — pleasure in watching horrible Republicans destroy each other. But there may be collateral damage 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @PhillipsPOBrien: This is a very important set of reflections by @paulkrugman on how to judge the air war taking place over Ukraine (and… — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Well, still a hot labor market. Not as hot as it was at the peak, but high levels of quits in particular make it hard to argue for a Fed pause. Sometimes the data don't tell you what you want to hear. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

RT @ojblanchard1: Thanks @paulkrugman. The analogy is fun, even if it has limits. Sometimes, some people will stand up, no matter what. T… — PolitiTweet.org