Nate Cohn

@Nate_Cohn ↗

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Last Checked July 18, 2022

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Sat Apr 16 13:51:15 +0000 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @albrgr @abarber1 i think the 'covid/ses' effect, as you call it, is much more interesting. ex ante, i thought it was entirely possible that those conditions yield a political earthquake. it didn't, and i'm not willing to assume that's what we should have expected based on the fundamentals — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @albrgr @abarber1 many of these 'realignments' correspond with unique nominees who barely won highly contested primaries, and it makes sense to me that those effects cancel out (ie: race effects maybe wouldn't cancel out if jesse jackson won the dem primary in '08, but he wouldn't have won) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2022

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Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

@davidshor @albrgr @abarber1 yeah, no doubt that it's basically cancelled out. i just don't think there's as obvious of a theoretical reason why that's inevitable, unless a) fundamentals favor it; b) parties optimize on ideology>electoral gains, all the way up until appeasing activists threatens viability — PolitiTweet.org

Posted April 16, 2022