Paul Krugman

@paulkrugman ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2023

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Mon Jan 30 17:47:27 +0000 2023

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

The ECI, being 4th v 3rd quarter, is roughly a measure for the 3 months ending November — which means, given how fast things seem to be moving, that it could miss a lot of recent disinflation. 4/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 30, 2023

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

Many (not all) of these measures have fallen off a cliff (in which case it's not clear how "underlying" they are, but never mind). In the measure shown above, the 3 months ending in Dec. were a lot lower than the 3 months ending in November 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 30, 2023

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Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

This is not to wave it away. If the ECI comes in hot, this will give Team Soft Landing pause. But in a fast-moving environment, even what used to seem like trivial data lags can pose problems of interpretation 5/ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 30, 2023